Major League Baseball · 2026

Is your team
toast?

The Toastometer estimates how much realistic closing room remains in a pennant race. It began as a way to know when the Braves could stop worrying about the rest of the NL East.

Potential closing rate: 0.4
Braves division TM: 2.9
Updated: September 22, 2026 at 12:21 AM EDT

The original idea

Four games per ten.

A trailing team is assumed to be capable of making up four games for every ten it has left. That 0.4 potential closing rate is deliberately used through the final game of the season.

This is a practical rule of thumb, not yet a statistically fitted limit. We can test and refine it later; for now, the original 0.4 premise remains intact.

The calculation

TM = PCR × GR − GB + 0.5

TM: Toast Margin
PCR: Potential Closing Rate: 0.4
GR: Games Remaining
GB: Games Behind

The half-game allowance means a team reaches zero just before the formula considers it toast. Below zero, the required comeback has exceeded the assumed closing pace.

Historical caveat: In the cases examined, we are unaware of any MLB team that recovered after reaching a Toast Margin below −1.2.

The daily board

Who is getting warm?

Switch between each club’s division race and the wild-card cutoff. Negative margins are toast by this model—not mathematically eliminated.

Find a teamLeagueDivision

Team	Record	GB	GR	MN	Toast margin	Status
Tampa Bay RaysAL East	95–60	—	7	2	—	Leading
Cleveland GuardiansAL Central	81–75	—	6	6	—	Leading
Texas RangersAL West	78–78	—	6	6	—	Leading
Milwaukee BrewersNL Central	98–58	—	6	0	—	Division clinched
Atlanta BravesNL East	92–64	—	6	0	—	Division clinched
Los Angeles DodgersNL West	96–60	—	6	0	—	Division clinched
Chicago White SoxAL Central	80–76	1.0	6	—	1.9	Toasty
Houston AstrosAL West	77–79	1.0	6	—	1.9	Toasty
Seattle MarinersAL West	73–83	5.0	6	—	-2.1	Toast
New York YankeesAL East	89–66	6.0	7	—	-2.7	Toast
Philadelphia PhilliesNL East	86–70	6.0	6	—	-3.1	Eliminated
Detroit TigersAL Central	74–83	7.5	5	—	-5.0	Eliminated
Minnesota TwinsAL Central	73–84	8.5	5	—	-6.0	Eliminated
San Diego PadresNL West	87–69	9.0	6	—	-6.1	Eliminated
Chicago CubsNL Central	87–69	11.0	6	—	-8.1	Eliminated
Boston Red SoxAL East	84–72	11.5	6	—	-8.6	Eliminated
Kansas City RoyalsAL Central	67–89	14.0	6	—	-11.1	Eliminated
Arizona DiamondbacksNL West	82–74	14.0	6	—	-11.1	Eliminated
Miami MarlinsNL East	76–80	16.0	6	—	-13.1	Eliminated
AthleticsAL West	61–95	17.0	6	—	-14.1	Eliminated
Los Angeles AngelsAL West	60–96	18.0	6	—	-15.1	Eliminated
Pittsburgh PiratesNL Central	79–77	19.0	6	—	-16.1	Eliminated
Toronto Blue JaysAL East	77–80	19.0	5	—	-16.5	Eliminated
Washington NationalsNL East	73–84	19.5	5	—	-17.0	Eliminated
Baltimore OriolesAL East	76–81	20.0	5	—	-17.5	Eliminated
New York MetsNL East	71–85	21.0	6	—	-18.1	Eliminated
St. Louis CardinalsNL Central	76–80	22.0	6	—	-19.1	Eliminated
Cincinnati RedsNL Central	72–84	26.0	6	—	-23.1	Eliminated
San Francisco GiantsNL West	65–92	31.5	5	—	-29.0	Eliminated
Colorado RockiesNL West	57–99	39.0	6	—	-36.1	Eliminated

MN is the magic number: any combination of that team’s wins and its closest relevant pursuer’s losses totaling the number clinches the position. Division magic numbers use MLB’s official figure when available; wild-card numbers are measured against the first team outside the field. Division leaders are shown separately in the wild-card view. Leading, Division clinched, Wild card clinched, and Eliminated are official-position statuses and override the heat scale.

Reading the heat

Bread10 or more

Warming5 to 9.9

Browning2 to 4.9

Toasty0 to 1.9

ToastBelow 0

LeadingCurrently holds the position

Division clinchedOfficially secured the division

Wild card clinchedOfficially secured a wild-card berth

EliminatedOfficially out of the race

The heat bands apply only to pursuing teams. Leading, Division clinched, Wild card clinched, and Eliminated override them; “Toast” still means highly unlikely, not mathematically eliminated.

Standings supplied by the official MLB Stats API. Data through September 22, 2026 at 12:21 AM EDT.

What the case studies say about PCR

Four games per ten lands exactly in the middle.

For each eventual winner, we calculated the lowest closing rate that would have kept it from ever becoming Toast.

6Came back from Toast

1Reached exactly TM = 0

6Never became Toast

Eventual winner	Required PCR	Lowest TM at .400
2007 Rockies	.750	−0.7
2009 Twins	.625	−0.9
1951 Giants	.571	−1.2
1962 Giants	.500	−0.7
2011 Cardinals	.500	−0.5
1964 Cardinals	.462	−0.8
2011 Rays	.400	0.0
2007 Phillies	.382	+0.3
1987 Tigers	.375	+0.2
1995 Mariners	.344	+0.5
1934 Cardinals	.333	+0.8
1938 Cubs	.250	+1.7
1993 Braves	.189	+0.9

Observed median.400

The thirteen required closing rates place .400 at the exact median. Six successful pursuers needed a faster rate and became Toast, six stayed below it, and the 2011 Rays landed precisely on the boundary.

Raising PCR enough to protect every eventual winner would require .750 because Colorado recovered from two games back with two remaining in 2007. That would make “Toast” nearly meaningless. Lowering PCR to .375 would classify eight of these thirteen successful comebacks as Toast and make the model too eager to give up.

RecommendationRetain PCR = .400

It identifies the genuinely exceptional escapes without declaring every large deficit hopeless.

The important limitation: these are famous successful comebacks, not a representative sample of every pennant race. Determining whether .400 is statistically optimal will require replaying all comparable races—including the many trailing teams that never recovered. For now, the historical evidence says the original rule of thumb was chosen remarkably well.

Toastometer Case Studies