PPenultimatology

Basketball · WNBA · Daily edition

The season,
in motion.

Daily Massey ratings, projected standings, and game probabilities—recalculated every morning and preserved before tipoff.

Results through
September 21, 2026
Teams rated
15
Updated
September 22, 2026 at 3:22 AM EDT

The daily measure

Every result changes what comes next.

Scoring margins determine each team’s opponent-adjusted rating. Recent games receive somewhat more weight, while a two-game prior steadies the opening weeks.

Predictions shown on game day are locked into the public record. Forecasts for later dates remain provisional until their game-day update.

Current ratings

Strength and projected finish

Rating zero is league average. Projected records combine completed results with the win probability of every remaining game.

Showing 15 of 15 teams

RankTeamRecordMassey ratingProjected recordPlayoff probability
1Golden State ValkyriesGS · Western30–11+7.1631.5–11.5100%
2Minnesota LynxMIN · Western32–9+7.0433.1–9.9100%
3Atlanta DreamATL · Eastern28–14+5.8428.5–14.5100%
4Indiana FeverIND · Eastern26–15+5.0026.9–16.1100%
5Las Vegas AcesLV · Western28–13+4.2729.4–13.6100%
6New York LibertyNY · Eastern25–17+3.1825.5–17.5100%
7Dallas WingsDAL · Western25–17+2.6625.7–17.3100%
8Washington MysticsWSH · Eastern25–16+0.8126.5–16.5100%
9Phoenix MercuryPHX · Western15–27-2.4815.4–27.60.0%
10Los Angeles SparksLA · Western16–25-3.2716.5–26.50.0%
11Chicago SkyCHI · Eastern15–26-4.0916.0–27.00.0%
12Portland FirePOR · Western16–25-4.2416.2–25.80.0%
13Seattle StormSEA · Western8–34-5.218.3–34.70.0%
14Toronto TempoTOR · Eastern11–30-8.1611.8–31.20.0%
15Connecticut SunCON · Eastern10–31-8.5210.8–32.20.0%

Playoff probabilities come from 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Rating breaks simulated ties; official WNBA tiebreakers are not modeled in this initial version.

Today’s games

Predictions on the record

Generated from results through September 21, 2026. These choices will not change after tipoff.

Tue, Sep 22 · 7:30 PM ETOn the record
Connecticut SunatWashington Mystics
Predicted winner
Washington Mystics
Margin
10.7 points
Win probability
78.0%
Tue, Sep 22 · 8:00 PM ETOn the record
Minnesota LynxatIndiana Fever
Predicted winner
Minnesota Lynx
Margin
0.7 points
Win probability
51.3%
Tue, Sep 22 · 8:00 PM ETOn the record
Toronto TempoatChicago Sky
Predicted winner
Chicago Sky
Margin
5.5 points
Win probability
65.8%
Tue, Sep 22 · 10:00 PM ETOn the record
Los Angeles SparksatLas Vegas Aces
Predicted winner
Las Vegas Aces
Margin
8.9 points
Win probability
74.2%
Tue, Sep 22 · 10:00 PM ETOn the record
Golden State ValkyriesatPortland Fire
Predicted winner
Golden State Valkyries
Margin
10.0 points
Win probability
75.7%

Looking ahead

The next seven days

These forecasts use today’s ratings and may change as new results enter the system.

Wed, Sep 23 · 8:00 PM ETProvisional
Atlanta DreamatNew York Liberty
Predicted winner
Atlanta Dream
Margin
1.3 points
Win probability
53.1%
Wed, Sep 23 · 10:00 PM ETProvisional
Dallas WingsatSeattle Storm
Predicted winner
Dallas Wings
Margin
6.5 points
Win probability
67.4%
Thu, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ETProvisional
Toronto TempoatConnecticut Sun
Predicted winner
Connecticut Sun
Margin
1.0 points
Win probability
53.6%
Thu, Sep 24 · 7:30 PM ETProvisional
Chicago SkyatWashington Mystics
Predicted winner
Washington Mystics
Margin
6.3 points
Win probability
68.0%
Thu, Sep 24 · 8:00 PM ETProvisional
Indiana FeveratMinnesota Lynx
Predicted winner
Minnesota Lynx
Margin
3.4 points
Win probability
60.4%
Thu, Sep 24 · 10:00 PM ETProvisional
Golden State ValkyriesatLos Angeles Sparks
Predicted winner
Golden State Valkyries
Margin
9.0 points
Win probability
73.6%
Thu, Sep 24 · 10:00 PM ETProvisional
Las Vegas AcesatPhoenix Mercury
Predicted winner
Las Vegas Aces
Margin
5.4 points
Win probability
64.5%

Prediction record

Nothing rewritten after the fact.

The daily public record begins with this edition. Once completed games arrive, results and probability calibration will accumulate here.

Season record
13–6
68.4% correct
Predictions archived
19
Historical test
188–98
65.7% in untouched 2025

Previous predictions

Every pick and result

Predictions are locked before tipoff. The score and outcome are added when the game becomes final.

DateMatchupPredictionFinal scoreResult
Aug 30CON at DALConnecticut Sun at Dallas WingsDallas Wings80.8% · by 12.2 · ReconstructedCON 71, DAL 97Correct
Aug 30GS at PORGolden State Valkyries at Portland FireGolden State Valkyries73.2% · by 8.9 · ReconstructedGS 86, POR 69Correct
Aug 30LA at SEALos Angeles Sparks at Seattle StormSeattle Storm55.5% · by 1.7 · ReconstructedLA 90, SEA 74Incorrect
Aug 30MIN at ATLMinnesota Lynx at Atlanta DreamMinnesota Lynx53.2% · by 1.3 · ReconstructedMIN 81, ATL 89Incorrect
Aug 29TOR at PHXToronto Tempo at Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury61.9% · by 4.0TOR 69, PHX 101Correct
Aug 29CHI at NYChicago Sky at New York LibertyNew York Liberty69.0% · by 6.7CHI 66, NY 85Correct
Aug 28WSH at LAWashington Mystics at Los Angeles SparksWashington Mystics60.4% · by 3.8 · ReconstructedWSH 82, LA 88Incorrect
Aug 28TOR at LVToronto Tempo at Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces78.8% · by 11.1 · ReconstructedTOR 73, LV 93Correct
Aug 28CON at INDConnecticut Sun at Indiana FeverIndiana Fever85.5% · by 15.1 · ReconstructedCON 91, IND 111Correct
Aug 28POR at ATLPortland Fire at Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream79.0% · by 11.2 · ReconstructedPOR 101, ATL 83Incorrect
Aug 27WSH at PHXWashington Mystics at Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics56.3% · by 2.4WSH 80, PHX 73Correct
Aug 27GS at NYGolden State Valkyries at New York LibertyGolden State Valkyries56.6% · by 2.5GS 79, NY 60Correct
Aug 26TOR at SEAToronto Tempo at Seattle StormSeattle Storm58.0% · by 2.6TOR 78, SEA 90Correct
Aug 26GS at CONGolden State Valkyries at Connecticut SunGolden State Valkyries80.4% · by 12.4GS 89, CON 64Correct
Aug 25WSH at PHXWashington Mystics at Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics54.7% · by 1.8WSH 94, PHX 84Correct
Aug 25POR at DALPortland Fire at Dallas WingsDallas Wings71.1% · by 7.6POR 78, DAL 96Correct
Aug 25CHI at CONChicago Sky at Connecticut SunChicago Sky60.1% · by 3.7CHI 81, CON 87Incorrect
Aug 24ATL at LAAtlanta Dream at Los Angeles SparksAtlanta Dream74.0% · by 9.2ATL 78, LA 71Correct
Aug 24GS at MINGolden State Valkyries at Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx61.1% · by 3.7GS 80, MIN 66Incorrect

Methodology

A WNBA-specific Massey system

Five completed seasons informed the initial model. Seasons 2022–24 selected the method; all 286 games in 2025 were held back for its final test.

01 · Rate

Opponent-adjusted margins

Least squares finds the ratings that best explain every scoring margin. The initial production model uses full margins rather than capping blowouts.

02 · Weight

Recent games matter more

Game weight declines by half every 90 days. The previous season begins as a two-game prior, stabilizing new-season estimates without dominating them.

03 · Predict

Margin becomes probability

A true home game adds 1.388 points. The resulting margin enters a logistic curve calibrated on chronological historical forecasts.

Predicted marginM = Rhome − Raway + 1.388
Home win probabilityP = 1 ÷ (1 + e−(0.023300 + 0.115882M))

Backtest: 65.7% winner accuracy, 10.84-point mean absolute margin error, and 0.216 Brier score in the untouched 2025 season. Rest and back-to-back adjustments were tested but omitted because they worsened out-of-sample probabilities. Data: ESPN WNBA scoreboard. Updated September 22, 2026 at 3:22 AM EDT.