PPenultimatology

College football · 2026 · Through Week 3

The field,
measured.

A transparent Massey system for team strength, game probabilities, and projected regular-season records—built to change as the games do.

Teams
138
Completed games
260
Simulated seasons
50,000

The distinction

Strength is not destiny.

Rank measures estimated team strength. Projected wins combine that strength with the difficulty and location of each opponent.

These are preseason estimates, not declarations. Team strength varies in each of 50,000 simulations, and the prior disappears after a team’s fourth game.

Through Week 3

Ratings & projections

Results included through September 20, 2026.

RankTeamActualRatingSOSGame projectionConference projection6+ winsView team
1▲ 2Notre Dame3–047.4#5416.2 avg.12–00–0100%
2▲ 3Alabama3–046.3#626.0 avg.12–09–0100%
3▲ 4Texas3–046.1#229.3 avg.12–09–099%
4▼ 2Ohio State2–145.0#1424.5 avg.10–28–197%
5▼ 1Utah3–044.8#4817.9 avg.12–09–0100%
6▼ 5Indiana3–039.3#5815.2 avg.11–18–1100%
7▼ 1Texas A&M2–138.8#1324.8 avg.7–54–591%
8▲ 1Georgia3–038.1#3220.7 avg.10–27–298%
9▲ 1LSU2–137.4#1724.0 avg.8–45–492%
10▲ 4Penn State3–037.2#5515.9 avg.12–09–0100%
11▲ 6Ole Miss3–037.0#825.5 avg.9–36–398%
12▼ 4Miami3–036.6#6913.5 avg.11–19–0100%
13▲ 12Nebraska3–036.4#2122.6 avg.9–36–397%
14▲ 6Pittsburgh3–036.1#6414.7 avg.10–27–2100%
15▼ 3Oklahoma2–134.8#130.2 avg.7–55–474%
16▼ 3Iowa3–034.8#3819.7 avg.10–27–297%
17▲ 15Mississippi State3–034.0#1025.3 avg.8–45–496%
18▼ 7BYU3–033.8#2421.8 avg.10–28–197%
19Tennessee3–033.3#1524.3 avg.7–54–593%
20▲ 3Oregon2–133.1#2721.2 avg.10–28–186%
21▲ 9Florida3–031.7#1224.9 avg.8–45–489%
22▲ 11Louisville2–131.5#4418.7 avg.10–29–094%
23▼ 2Michigan3–030.7#725.6 avg.8–45–494%
24▼ 9Kansas State3–030.7#6714.4 avg.11–18–198%
25▲ 3South Carolina2–130.0#1823.5 avg.6–63–673%
26▲ 26Kentucky2–129.8#328.9 avg.6–63–677%
27▼ 3Vanderbilt3–029.6#427.5 avg.5–72–787%
28▲ 8Duke3–029.3#6514.6 avg.10–27–299%
29▲ 20Virginia Tech3–028.5#6813.9 avg.9–36–398%
30▲ 4James Madison3–027.9#1221.3 avg.12–08–0100%
31▼ 15Virginia2–127.8#5715.6 avg.8–46–392%
32▲ 6Maryland2–127.4#3320.6 avg.7–55–481%
33▲ 12Iowa State2–127.1#3120.8 avg.7–55–478%
34▼ 12Texas Tech3–027.0#6215.0 avg.11–18–198%
35▼ 9Missouri3–026.4#925.3 avg.6–63–681%
36▲ 3Illinois2–126.4#1923.3 avg.3–91–866%
37▼ 8Arizona2–126.3#2921.1 avg.8–45–481%
38▲ 5UCF2–126.2#5316.9 avg.9–37–287%
39▼ 4Auburn2–125.8#1624.1 avg.5–72–765%
40Florida State1–225.2#3720.0 avg.6–64–463%
41▲ 9UCLA3–025.1#3620.1 avg.8–45–494%
42▲ 11New Mexico2–124.6#1310.1 avg.11–18–099%
43▼ 25USC4–024.3#2322.2 avg.6–63–691%
44▼ 7SMU2–124.2#6015.1 avg.10–28–193%
45▲ 6Houston2–124.1#6115.0 avg.8–45–482%
46▲ 2Michigan State2–123.4#2022.8 avg.6–64–573%
47▲ 12Wisconsin2–122.1#4119.2 avg.7–55–471%
48▼ 7South Florida3–022.0#1073.5 avg.11–17–1100%
49▼ 3NC State1–221.9#6314.7 avg.7–55–470%
50▲ 12Northwestern2–021.9#3520.1 avg.5–72–773%
51▼ 9Cincinnati3–021.7#4019.3 avg.5–72–781%
52▼ 5Arizona State2–121.6#5217.4 avg.6–64–578%
53▼ 26Washington3–021.3#2521.7 avg.5–72–775%
54▲ 4Baylor2–120.2#5117.5 avg.4–82–765%
55▼ 1TCU2–120.1#4318.8 avg.4–82–755%
56▲ 8Minnesota2–120.0#3420.5 avg.5–73–652%
57▲ 27West Virginia3–018.6#4218.8 avg.7–54–583%
58▼ 2Army1–118.5#955.7 avg.9–26–276%
59▲ 2Wake Forest2–118.3#5615.9 avg.5–72–775%
60▲ 15Syracuse1–217.8#5017.7 avg.4–83–638%
61▼ 6Kansas1–217.3#3919.6 avg.3–91–831%
62▼ 31North Texas1–217.1#906.1 avg.7–55–386%
63▲ 9UTSA2–116.5#7410.7 avg.10–27–189%
64▲ 4Tulane1–216.3#7212.2 avg.8–46–274%
65▲ 28Oklahoma State2–116.1#4917.7 avg.4–82–754%
66▼ 6Western Michigan2–115.7#1290.3 avg.10–27–198%
67▼ 23Boise State2–115.3#779.6 avg.7–45–275%
68▼ 3Clemson2–114.2#4518.6 avg.4–82–660%
69▼ 6Toledo2–114.1#135-1.6 avg.11–18–097%
70▲ 31Tulsa3–013.6#886.4 avg.9–35–395%
71▼ 14Georgia Tech1–213.6#4718.3 avg.4–83–523%
72▲ 14UConn2–112.2#965.5 avg.8–40–084%
73Purdue1–212.2#1125.1 avg.1–110–98%
74▲ 7Delaware2–112.0#1024.0 avg.10–28–091%
75▲ 22Texas State1–211.6#7013.0 avg.6–54–350%
76▼ 5East Carolina1–211.6#876.7 avg.8–46–276%
77▼ 7Fresno State2–111.5#847.9 avg.6–53–469%
78Navy1–111.0#798.9 avg.7–45–351%
79▲ 29North Dakota State4–010.6#136-3.0 avg.11–18–1100%
80▼ 4San Diego State1–210.5#7510.3 avg.5–64–334%
81▲ 7Colorado State2–110.5#808.9 avg.5–63–455%
82▲ 12Miami (OH)1–210.5#1063.5 avg.9–37–182%
83▼ 9Utah State0–310.3#6614.6 avg.4–73–414%
84▼ 7North Carolina2–110.3#2222.2 avg.2–100–823%
85▲ 5Temple1–210.2#818.5 avg.5–73–559%
86▼ 6California2–19.8#5915.2 avg.5–73–647%
87▲ 2Oregon State1–29.8#789.3 avg.6–54–339%
88▲ 7App State3–09.2#1123.1 avg.9–36–294%
89▼ 23Washington State1–28.4#7310.9 avg.3–82–524%
90▲ 17Liberty2–18.1#1251.0 avg.10–27–188%
91▼ 8Louisiana Tech1–27.9#1191.7 avg.6–65–369%
92▲ 21Troy2–17.6#1014.3 avg.7–55–382%
93▲ 13South Alabama2–16.9#1133.1 avg.9–37–182%
94▼ 27Colorado2–16.8#3020.9 avg.2–100–921%
95▼ 10Old Dominion1–26.7#945.7 avg.4–83–548%
96Ohio1–26.3#134-1.0 avg.8–46–284%
97▼ 15Arkansas1–25.6#527.0 avg.1–110–93%
98▼ 6Florida International1–25.4#1152.4 avg.6–64–465%
99▼ 20Stanford1–25.3#2821.2 avg.2–100–911%
100▲ 36Sam Houston1–24.8#1211.5 avg.6–65–354%
101▼ 32Memphis3–14.4#925.9 avg.6–63–574%
102▲ 12Florida Atlantic2–13.8#828.4 avg.5–72–666%
103▲ 19Georgia State2–13.6#1181.8 avg.7–54–474%
104▲ 11Jacksonville State2–23.2#1300.3 avg.7–55–371%
105▼ 6Rutgers0–33.1#4618.5 avg.1–110–91%
106▲ 6Air Force1–13.0#1162.1 avg.5–74–456%
107▼ 4Georgia Southern1–22.7#857.3 avg.3–92–631%
108▼ 4Louisiana2–12.4#133-0.6 avg.9–36–279%
109▼ 4Kennesaw State1–22.2#1201.6 avg.4–83–549%
110▼ 23UNLV1–21.8#1004.4 avg.5–74–449%
111▲ 13Coastal Carolina1–21.1#1053.8 avg.4–83–537%
112▼ 14Nevada1–20.9#1033.9 avg.4–83–532%
113▼ 11Hawai'i1–20.7#1113.1 avg.4–82–640%
114▼ 4New Mexico State1–2-0.1#1103.2 avg.3–92–637%
115▼ 24Boston College2–1-0.2#2621.5 avg.2–100–86%
116▲ 1Marshall2–1-0.4#975.2 avg.6–63–567%
117▼ 17San José State2–2-0.9#1143.0 avg.5–83–665%
118▲ 14Massachusetts3–0-1.0#138-4.6 avg.8–45–391%
119▼ 3Buffalo1–2-1.5#1231.1 avg.7–55–357%
120▼ 11Arkansas State1–2-1.8#1320.0 avg.4–82–642%
121▲ 6Rice1–2-1.9#7112.5 avg.1–110–810%
122▼ 1UAB1–2-2.5#867.1 avg.3–91–721%
123Northern Illinois0–3-2.6#935.8 avg.4–84–417%
124▼ 13Missouri State1–2-3.0#985.1 avg.4–83–525%
125▲ 4Middle Tennessee2–1-3.0#1260.8 avg.5–73–550%
126▲ 8Charlotte0–3-3.9#769.9 avg.0–120–85%
127▼ 1UTEP1–2-4.6#896.2 avg.5–74–427%
128▼ 10Southern Miss1–2-7.0#1043.9 avg.3–92–613%
129▼ 1Akron1–2-7.6#1280.3 avg.2–101–729%
130▼ 10Wyoming1–2-7.7#1093.4 avg.2–101–717%
131▲ 4Central Michigan2–1-7.9#1270.7 avg.5–73–547%
132▼ 7Bowling Green0–3-8.1#838.3 avg.3–93–57%
133▼ 14Eastern Michigan1–3-8.4#1241.1 avg.3–92–618%
134▼ 3Western Kentucky0–3-9.9#916.1 avg.1–110–88%
135▼ 5Sacramento State1–3-11.1#137-3.3 avg.2–101–715%
136▲ 1Kent State1–2-12.5#994.7 avg.3–92–615%
137▼ 4Ball State1–2-13.2#1171.9 avg.3–92–615%
138UL Monroe0–3-14.9#1083.5 avg.0–120–82%

Team outlook

Georgia Tech

Strength rank #71 · Actual record 1–2 · 25% preseason influence

Game-by-game projection4–827% chance of exactly this record
Schedule strength#4718.3 opponent rating
Conference projection3–5
Expected record4.5–7.5
Most likely record4–8
6+ wins23%
Week 4 · Away · ConferenceStanford
Projected W53%
Week 6 · Home · ConferenceDuke
Projected L36%
Week 7 · Away · ConferenceVirginia Tech
Projected L23%
Week 8 · Home · ConferenceBoston College
Projected W75%
Week 9 · Away · ConferencePittsburgh
Projected L17%
Week 10 · Home · ConferenceLouisville
Projected L33%
Week 11 · Away · ConferenceClemson
Projected L41%
Week 12 · Home · ConferenceWake Forest
Projected W52%
Week 13 · AwayGeorgia
Projected L15%

Predictions on the record

Weekly forecast & results

Each forecast is preserved before kickoff. Once scores arrive, the original choices remain unchanged and their accuracy is added to the record.

Week 4
Pending
71 games forecast
2026 season
223–37
85.8% correct

Forecast: Through Week 3 · using results through September 20. A tie at exactly 50% is assigned to the home team for the published pick.

Showing 71 of 71 games

DateMatchupPredicted winnerPredicted marginWin probabilityResult
Sep 24LibertyatCoastal CarolinaLiberty7.0 points51.6%Pending
Sep 25ArmyatTempleArmy8.3 points53.4%Pending
Sep 25HowardatRutgersRutgers42.4 points94.0%Pending
Sep 25NavyatUABNavy13.5 points60.7%Pending
Sep 25NorthwesternatIndianaIndiana17.3 points78.9%Pending
Sep 25ClemsonatCaliforniaCalifornia4.4 points52.1%Pending
Sep 26TexasatTennesseeTexas12.8 points59.7%Pending
Sep 26Sam HoustonatTexas TechTexas Tech22.1 points83.1%Pending
Sep 26ColoradoatBaylorBaylor13.3 points74.9%Pending
Sep 26BucknellatPittsburghPittsburgh69.9 points98.7%Pending
Sep 26Virginia TechatBoston CollegeVirginia Tech28.7 points78.5%Pending
Sep 26Wake ForestatLouisvilleLouisville13.2 points74.8%Pending
Sep 26IllinoisatOhio StateOhio State18.6 points80.1%Pending
Sep 26San Diego StateatToledoToledo3.6 points63.2%Pending
Sep 26Colorado StateatUTSAUTSA5.9 points66.2%Pending
Sep 26UNLVatAkronUNLV9.4 points54.9%Pending
Sep 26Ball StateatKent StateKent State0.7 points59.3%Pending
Sep 26South AlabamaatKentuckyKentucky23.0 points83.8%Pending
Sep 26LindenwoodatEastern MichiganEastern Michigan18.8 points80.3%Pending
Sep 26UCLAatMarylandMaryland2.3 points61.5%Pending
Sep 26Notre DameatPurdueNotre Dame35.3 points84.2%Pending
Sep 26Northern IllinoisatGeorgia StateGeorgia State6.2 points66.5%Pending
Sep 26Central ArkansasatFlorida StateFlorida State55.2 points97.0%Pending
Sep 26Hawai'iatWyomingHawai'i8.4 points53.6%Pending
Sep 26Ole MissatFloridaFlorida5.3 points50.8%Pending
Sep 26OklahomaatGeorgiaGeorgia3.3 points62.7%Pending
Sep 26TCUatUCFUCF6.1 points66.5%Pending
Sep 26UtahatIowa StateUtah17.6 points66.1%Pending
Sep 26William & MaryatDukeDuke44.1 points94.5%Pending
Sep 26IowaatMichiganMichigan4.1 points52.6%Pending
Sep 26Boise StateatWestern MichiganWestern Michigan0.5 points59.0%Pending
Sep 26UConnatMiami (OH)Miami (OH)1.7 points55.9%Pending
Sep 26New MexicoatNew Mexico StateNew Mexico24.7 points74.5%Pending
Sep 26Robert MorrisatBuffaloBuffalo36.2 points91.7%Pending
Sep 26StonehillatOhioOhio28.5 points87.6%Pending
Sep 26Gardner-WebbatMarshallMarshall11.4 points72.8%Pending
Sep 26HoustonatGeorgia SouthernHouston21.4 points70.7%Pending
Sep 26North Carolina CentralatEast CarolinaEast Carolina44.5 points94.6%Pending
Sep 26VanderbiltatAuburnAuburn3.8 points53.0%Pending
Sep 26NebraskaatMichigan StateNebraska13.0 points60.0%Pending
Sep 26WisconsinatPenn StatePenn State15.1 points76.7%Pending
Sep 26South FloridaatBowling GreenSouth Florida30.1 points79.9%Pending
Sep 26DelawareatVirginiaVirginia15.8 points77.5%Pending
Sep 26Incarnate WordatTexas StateTexas State24.6 points85.0%Pending
Sep 26Long Island UniversityatFlorida InternationalFlorida International25.1 points85.4%Pending
Sep 26James MadisonatOld DominionJames Madison21.2 points70.5%Pending
Sep 26Central MichiganatMiamiMiami44.6 points94.6%Pending
Sep 26LouisianaatCharlotteLouisiana6.2 points50.5%Pending
Sep 26South CarolinaatAlabamaAlabama16.3 points77.9%Pending
Sep 26Kansas StateatCincinnatiKansas State9.0 points54.4%Pending
Sep 26Oklahoma StateatWest VirginiaWest Virginia2.6 points61.8%Pending
Sep 26Southern MissatTulaneTulane23.3 points84.0%Pending
Sep 26Kennesaw StateatArkansas StateArkansas State4.1 points52.6%Pending
Sep 26MercyhurstatWestern KentuckyWestern Kentucky19.9 points81.3%Pending
Sep 26Middle TennesseeatJacksonville StateJacksonville State6.2 points66.6%Pending
Sep 26Texas A&MatLSULSU1.4 points56.4%Pending
Sep 26ArizonaatWashington StateArizona17.9 points66.5%Pending
Sep 26OregonatUSCOregon8.8 points54.2%Pending
Sep 26TroyatUtah StateUtah State2.7 points62.0%Pending
Sep 26Houston ChristianatNorth TexasNorth Texas49.1 points95.8%Pending
Sep 26App StateatNC StateNC State12.8 points74.3%Pending
Sep 26MissouriatMississippi StateMississippi State7.5 points68.2%Pending
Sep 26TulsaatArkansasTulsa8.1 points53.1%Pending
Sep 26Florida AtlanticatUL MonroeFlorida Atlantic18.7 points67.5%Pending
Sep 26Missouri StateatSMUSMU27.1 points86.7%Pending
Sep 26Oregon StateatUTEPOregon State14.4 points61.8%Pending
Sep 26MassachusettsatSacramento StateMassachusetts10.1 points55.9%Pending
Sep 26RiceatFresno StateFresno State13.4 points75.0%Pending
Sep 26Georgia TechatStanfordGeorgia Tech8.3 points53.4%Pending
Sep 26Air ForceatNevadaNevada2.1 points55.4%Pending
Sep 26MinnesotaatWashingtonWashington1.4 points60.2%Pending

Probability check

Is confidence matching reality?

A well-calibrated model should win roughly seven of every ten games placed in the 70–79% band. This record accumulates through the season.

50–59% forecasts
57.1%
20 of 35 correct
60–69% forecasts
66.7%
24 of 36 correct
70–79% forecasts
88.6%
39 of 44 correct
80–89% forecasts
95.4%
62 of 65 correct
90–100% forecasts
97.5%
78 of 80 correct

How it works

01

Rate

Raw scoring margins enter a pure least-squares Massey system. FCS opponents remain in the network, while only FBS teams are ranked.

02

Calibrate

A logistic probability curve was trained on chronological 2021–24 predictions and tested against the untouched 2025 season.

03

Simulate

Each scheduled game is played 50,000 times while allowing for genuine uncertainty in every team’s preseason strength.

Strength of schedule is the average current Massey rating of every opponent on a team’s known regular-season schedule, including lower-division opponents. Rank No. 1 denotes the most difficult schedule. Because opponent ratings change as results accumulate, schedule strength is recalculated with every weekly update.

The exact weekly calculation

From ratings to a win probability

Projection
Through Week 3
Scoring home-field advantage
2.236 points
Probability-equivalent home effect
5.903 rating points
Neutral-site adjustment
0 points
Predicted marginM = Rhome − Raway + S

M is the predicted scoring margin from the home team’s perspective. S is the historically observed 2.236-point scoring advantage for a true home game and zero at a neutral site.

Win probabilityP(home) = 1 ÷ (1 + e−(0.056917929D + 0.336009714I))

D is the unadjusted rating difference and I is 1 for a true home game or 0 at a neutral site. The 0.336010 home coefficient is equivalent to 5.903 rating points for win-probability purposes; it is not an expected scoring margin. The visitor’s probability is 1 − P(home).

Try it yourself

Win-probability calculator

Use team ratings to calculate the margin automatically, or enter an already calculated margin directly.

Choose an input method
Predicted resultHome by 7.2
Home win probability65.0%
Visitor win probability35.0%

At a neutral site, a margin of 0.0 produces a 50.0% probability for each team. At a true home site, the scoring model adds 2.236 points, while the independently fitted probability model gives home status a 0.336010 log-odds effect—equivalent to 5.903 rating points for probability purposes.

The projection label and calibration values above identify the inputs used for the currently displayed week. The scoring adjustment estimates points on the scoreboard; the separately fitted logistic home effect estimates the chance of winning.

Regular-season schedule through Week 14. Conference championships and postseason games are excluded because their participants are not yet known.